Are Android, Chrome-Flavored Netbooks on Tap for Google?
Earlier this week, I lamented what Google didn't do in 2008, but with the year winding down let's consider what's on tap at Google for 2009. Garret Rogers over at ZDNet is thinking that there will be several mobile devices running Google's Android mobile operating system. I know, I know. Stating the obvious a little. But in this obscene economy, it's OK to play it safe. Of course, there will be more Android devices, probably from Sprint, Motorola, Samsung, Kogan, Garmin and God knows who else. But while we're on the subject, I'd like to add to this list that we should see an Android netbook in 2008. Why not? Netbooks have gone gangbusters in 2008. Just ask Amazon, which said the Acer Aspire One netbook was king.
Correction: If the Speaking of working with manufacturers, Rogers says Google will strike deals with computer OEMs for Chrome, and Chrome will snag a "significant chunk of the browser market." I absolutely agree. Google has to if it's serious about getting any penetration for Chrome. Why not some Android-flavored netbooks packaged with Chrome from Asus, Acer, HP or Dell? Alex Chitu over at Google Operating System predicts Chrome gets 10 percent of the browser market for 2009. Wow! That's bold considering that four months in, Chrome has landed less than 1 percent or so, according to Net Applications. But if Google lands some OEMs for Android and bundles Chrome onto those netbooks, or even regular laptops and PCs, that number will rocket. Mozilla proved Internet Explorer is not invincible, and if it can get 20 percent worldwide adoption in a handful of years, Chrome can certainly get 10 percent in a year with the oomph of some OEMs. Rogers revives the specter of a Google operating system. My sources say no, but Google refuses to deny the possibility, fueling the speculation. Rogers also says Google Apps will gain momentum in the enterprise, thanks to the woeful economy. Agreed, but I'm going to be more cautious here and curb my enthusiasm. Google scored a number of major contracts in 2007 and was pretty public about them. While Google Apps went nuts from an innovation standpoint, the business deals seemed pretty quiet. I mean, Serena Software was overjoyed to tell me about switching its users to Google Gmail, but Google didn't make a peep about this. I believe we'll see more midsize contracts in the 1,000- to 2,000-seat range rather than large multithousand-seat subscriptions, which is nothing to write home about. Hopefully, Google Enterprise President Dave Girouard is itching to prove me wrong and we'll see Google trumpet some big deals by spring 2009. But let's extend this and say the cloud computing providers overall will exceed expectations. Think Salesforce.com, Zoho and plenty of other more bottom-feeding scavengers picking up crumbs from the SAAS/cloud computing table. You know who you are. Finally, yes, Google will get more frugal. This is just as safe a prediction as the idea that there will be more Android smartphones. We're already seeing Google's frugality in the shelving of Lively, Research Datasets and SearchMash. Knol could go, along with other less serious, frivolous projects that don't feed Google's money machine. Google Operating System's Chitu, meanwhile, has some bolder predictions I will pick up in another post before the new year. For example, he says Marissa Mayer will leave the company. That would be rough because she does the best job articulating the company's search strategy and keeping the user interface squeaky clean. Imagine if she ended up at Facebook or some other up-and-comer? It could happen. What do you expect to happen at Google in 2009? |

Comments (20)
Given economic reality, Google's give it away with ads MO makes a great deal of sense. At this point in time, Google's free documents app makes a lot more sense to me than spending $100+ for a new version of Office or Word. Quite frankly, the free google docs app is more than enough power for the types of documents and spreadsheets I use. And it works nicely with vista, which is more than I can say for most older MS products. I get tired of lining uncle Bill's pockets.
Posted by Mark Smith | December 27, 2008 2:43 AM
I'm very much looking forward to replacing my Symbian phone with an Android phone. But on netbooks, people want full browsers, word processing, and productivity applications. These exist and work great on Ubuntu; Android just doesn't have them. Furthermore, applications need to be designed very differently for netbook screens/keyboards and phones.
What might make sense is to enable running Android apps on top of Ubuntu and other Linux distributions, kind of like applets. So, Android might become an add-on to desktop and netbook Linux versions, but it won't replace it.
Posted by Mike Jones | December 27, 2008 3:43 AM
A few observations from inside:
- Chrome is being scored as a potential disaster; leadership expected hockey-stick adoption. They're now saying "marketing" will revive it - we never used to advertise Google products, but now Chrome ads are being built into every toolbar, every Google page, every interaction. Getting tiresome.
- More jobcuts coming, extending well past the contractor base.
- Marissa Mayer spends more time at New York and Paris fashion shows than she does working on "selling Google's future." So no big loss there.
- The big loss is going to be when Eric S. decides to leave; rumors that this is the year for that are really worrying the googleplex. Big, bad signal to the market.
Posted by eric blair | December 27, 2008 6:59 AM
Well, I for one see google going after the netbook market hard. I foresee double touch screen netbooks with android capability to be in the works soon (maybe even gesture enabled?) What hasn't google done, and given enough time, what hasn't google done well. Every IT person out there would be happy to see more linux penetration. One word, adaptability. Just look at what developers have done for android thus far and it's not ever been unlocked for a year yet. Apple and Microsoft annoy me terribly with there proprietary thinking stifling innovation, and I'm not even a computer geek. To take some lingo from my permaculture files, mark my words whole systems design is the trend for 09.
Posted by Evan Schoepke | December 27, 2008 11:19 AM
I think its great Google and other vendors are finally getting into the OS game. The fact that Android is open source means we won't have to wait for a large cooperation to come out with new features, instead we get thousands of volunteer coders making it better by the day.
I like google docs and just about everything else they offer. I'd like to see them help expand eyeos with some of their technology.
I'm also a huge fan of Open Source, I'll use my OpenOffice over MS office anyday, and when it comes to browsers I only open IE to goto netflix, which will be no more once boxee is released out of alpha.
Bring on the netbooks, I can't wait.
Posted by Jeicrash | December 27, 2008 2:14 PM
If it weren't for proprietary thinking, we wouldn't have innovation. Very little has come from the open source community that isn't an exact duplicate of proprietary software. There is no innovation going on. Open source software is great and all, but innovative, it is not.
Posted by Patrick | December 27, 2008 2:26 PM
The thing that folks are not getting yet about google docs it that they enable collaboration in ways that just isn't possible with MS Office, or any other device oriented package. Think meetings with notes taken in a google doc or spreadsheet with several folks entering notes simultaneously into a single doc. After the meeting everyone updates their info. It is all in one doc, nothing to mail around. When folks start to get this new paradigm that will not put up with less, it completely changes the work flow and redefines collaboration.
Sure, Google should push netbooks, but there is no reason a smart phone can't provide an interface to a keyboard, mouse, high res screen and Internet connection. With the cloud and a smart phone 90% of information workers will not need a PC of any type within three years. And projection devices will eliminate the need to luge around a screen.
2009 is the launch year for cloud computing and Google will be the prime beneficiary.
Posted by emilio | December 27, 2008 5:09 PM
Every time you use Google software you are giving Google more information about yourself. Everything they produce is spyware. I would avoid it like the plague.
Why do we need Chrome when we have Firefox, Android when we have Ubuntu (and many other Linux variants), Google Apps when we have OpenOffice, GMail when we have Yahoo Mail, and etc.
Posted by jorjitop | December 27, 2008 5:52 PM
I would not want Android on a PC/Netbook. Android is designed for devices with much less processing power, graphics enhancements, and slower disk read speed; Not to mention such limited RAM. If it's "linux-based", i would just go with linux. As mentioned previously, running Android Apps on an emulator on Linux would probably work 10x better, although i don't know why you would want to. Isn't that like running Windows Mobile over Windows Vista.
Posted by TmoBin | December 27, 2008 6:52 PM
Android is far too alpha to be taken seriously. It's barely an interesting brick (first gen).
Same with Chrome..
One year is a decade in computer years, but 2009 for gBooks would be a no go unless they were given away or $99.
Posted by Herb | December 27, 2008 10:53 PM
There's no way I'm using a browser for an OS anytime soon, or Android on anything other than a phone until they can do with it what can be done with OSX, Ubuntu or Windows. However, on the phone side, Android has the most current potential IMO and if/when I get a new phone, I'll be looking at one.
Posted by John | December 27, 2008 11:09 PM
I love Google, but everyone I know (myself included) has installed Google's Chrome browser only to uninstall it after a day or so. It's so lame. It's like a browser designed for preschoolers. We're all sticking with Firefox until Chrome is redesigned. Maybe then we'll give it another try. Does anyone really need to see thumbnail images of the web sites they visit most often? Ridiculous.
Posted by Eric Sermon | December 28, 2008 1:50 AM
I've been with Verizon for over eight years, my contract just ended and I will be getting a phone with the Android OS. I want to wait to see what comes out after the first of the year to see what the other phones with Android will be like then, the G1 is just so ...oh hum.
Posted by David | December 28, 2008 1:58 AM
i'll rather wait for the next version of the symbian operating system which should be opensource and out in 2009. Symbian was originally designed for netbooks and mobile companions. Im sure they will have a few surprises up their sleeve.
Also symbian is by far the most popular smart phone software available with somewhere nearly 50% of the market. Lets focus on reality, Android is small fish compared to Symbian.
Hopefully the symbian foundation will learn from the mistakes of S60 which was having a very powerful OS that lacked applications, but has a thorough and expensive app store.
Posted by dan Brown | December 28, 2008 10:50 AM
Proper penetration would actually need constant development on Google's side. To fix security holes, to create updates etc.
But there's another challenge. This time around they will be putting a piece of software on YOUR pc. Not like google doc's on their own.
So now they'll have to do even more regression testing which they are not used to.
I forsee problems there.
Also where would their 10% come from? I expect Mozilla, not IE. Unless they do strike a deal where they get it pre-installed. The people that do use FireFox are usually the people that will try new stuff. Hence the move away from IE.
Most importantly though: how could you compare a browser with an OS?! Chrome is no OS. Even the so called gOS isn't an actual OS. It does not drive hardware. period.
Posted by Soosan Fields | December 29, 2008 7:18 AM
How about a downloadable Gmail IMAP client, allowing downloading of messages and offline working?
Ideally it should look the same as Gmail, use the same label system and automatically sync Contacts, allowing access to Contacts from other programs such as OpenOffice.
Posted by Ken | December 30, 2008 7:25 AM
I am a student at Texas Tech University. Of the hundreds of XP PCs for student use, every one is loaded with Firefox, and just about every student is using it to check MySpace or Facebook, unless they're actually doing schoolwork. Problem for Google is that while IE has the TTU homepage, Firefox has the Google Mozilla Start Page that has no mention of Chrome on it at all.
Posted by Shane | December 30, 2008 2:34 PM
If Android and netbooks had come out five years ago, or before the 1 gig Intel Atom and multi-gig SSD, I'd say there was a chance. But now, why would anybody want a system that does less more slowly than current configurations (not to mention improved hardware a year from now) will do.
Posted by Forone | December 31, 2008 7:37 AM
Why hasn't anyone coined the term "ChromeBook" yet?
Too obvious?
Posted by Rick Evans | January 2, 2009 12:47 PM
The supposed gOS isn't going to be a desktop OS. It's going to be your cloud OS. I don't know how it could work but I see a "ChromeBook" netbook with Android as the operating system and Chrome as the portal to the cloud-based gOS. Look, I just need to be able to play Halflife, okay?! :)
My only concern about all of this is the privacy issue of Google knowing everything I do from my bank account to my "amateur video" addictions. But hey, does anyone really believe that they're information is safe anymore. We're all wide open on the internets. Don't be scared! It's the GOOG. "Don't be evil" is more than just a catchy phrase. It's a muzzle for my paranoia ;)
Posted by Joe Mamma | January 5, 2009 9:54 AM