Google Making Inroads in Smartphones
Google is gaining momentum in the smartphone market, as Taiwan handset maker HTC says it will introduce three new Android-based phones this year. It is also rolling out a second version of the G1 in the second quarter. This on top of news earlier this year that Motorola will consolidate its handset business around two operating systems, principally Android. ZDNet's Jason Hiner makes a good general observation about the smartphone market--that there isn't room for six operating systems and that a shake-out is coming. But what I don't follow is his conclusion that Android and Windows Mobile will be losers in this battle. The numbers he shows actually belie that assumption, if you look at them in context. G1 has been around for less than a year, and it already matches the Apple OS (i.e., iPhone). If you want to hypothesize that there will be only three operating systems left standing in the end, why would you bet against the one that has the biggest company in the world behind it? And I wouldn't bet against Windows either, given the relatively high marks Windows 6.5 received and the fact that LG seems committed to the OS. I think it's obvious that Symbian is in, thanks to support from Nokia. The most obvious big loser is Research In Motion. Sure, its technology kicks ass and it enjoys a loyal following. But that won't stop someone from buying it out, appropriating its technology and breaking the hearts of its customers. It's never stopped anyone before. |
Comments (3)
As HTML5-based applications begin to permeate the mobile space, the smartphone OS will become less & less relevant (i.e. all apps will essentially run on all OSes). Thus, it is conceivable that all of the existing mobile OSes would continue to exist.
Anyone not familiar with HTML5 should check out this demo of Gmail using HTML5:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmjxmOtNZCk
One optimization that might make sense is for many of the existing OS to eventually move to a common Linux platform where there are different installable "desktops" (e.g. Android/webOS/Symbian/Blackberry/etc.)...kinda like KDE & GNOME. This would be beneficial because:
1. device vendors would be able to differentiate their devices with a unique user experience.
2. component/chip vendors would have fewer drivers to develop & support.
3. consumers would theoretically be able to change "desktops", without changing devices.
4. the linux platform would be community developed & supported (versus being re-invented for every smartphone OS).
5. the linux platform would be portable to different CPU architectures (e.g. ARM & x86).
Posted by HereAndNow | March 17, 2009 2:26 PM
I point out that according to Gartner ,Android devices were 20% of fourth quarter Linux smart phone sales.Thus about 630000 or so.Surely Androids share will grow with more devices.However it is still early days for Android.Nokia will almost certainly lose money this year and probably more share in the smart phpone market.Certainly until the n97 comes out they will lack a flagship touch screen device.The 5800 is their only touch screen. device and while successful is not enough by itself.They have major problems in the cell market and the third world which is their base is suffering in the recession even more than the rich countries.Lg is not proved as a smart phone vendor and their flagship the Arena is propietary software.I think that only Apple and Rim will make money this year in the telephone handset market.Likely none of the others will.The smart phone market will be very exciting this year with the Pre and the other devices and platforms fighting Apple for the consumer market.
Posted by Pablo | March 17, 2009 8:21 PM
Thanks for the comments. This is about more than just this year's revenues. This is a long-term fight that will require deep pockets, which is why RIM could be on the outside looking in unless it gets acquired.
H&N: I agree with you in principle, but the principals would have to agree to play nice, and that happens... very, very rarely. They all have too much to lose, not to mention shareholder confidence.
Posted by Michael Hickins | March 17, 2009 9:02 PM