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Sunday, December 21, 2008 1:27 PM/EST

Google, T-Mobile and the Android G2 Conspiracy

I don't have any inside knowledge into T-Mobile's plans for follow-ups to the Google Android mobile operating-based G1, which according to Cell Phone Signal includes a G2 smartphone ready to roll out at the end of January.

But I will say that VentureBeat's MG Siegler looks at this notion through the proper lens—it's absurd. Why would T-Mobile launch a follow-up device when the jury is still out on the G1?

Siegler's right when he compares the situation to when Apple lowered the price of its iPhone by a couple hundred dollars. Those who bought the iPhone for $599 only to see the price go to $399 in September 2007 were furious, lighting into the company because they felt robbed.

With that precedent, consumers who bought the G1 would be ticked off at the idea of a new T-Mobile Android gadget just three months after the first iteration.

For Google's part, I recognize the company's rabid desire to see phones based on Android proliferate like rabbits and saturate the market to trump the iPhone, Symbian and Windows Mobile on choice. But would it let T-Mobile risk alienating the alleged 1 million-plus G1 owners?

There is this in the name of devil's advocacy: Many people agree the G1 was not so spectacular, so some people might go for a G2 from T-Mobile, even if it's three months after the G1.

With no keyboard, video calling and other differentiations from the G1, the G2 appears to be more like the iPhone than the G1. Perhaps that's the strategy. Release the G1 to test the waters and market demand and follow it up with a different device for the same price—$179—shortly after.

T-Mobile can argue that users are getting more choice for reasonably priced mobile devices for less than half the cost of the original iPhone in 2007 (as is their wont, prices for consumer devices have plummeted; the iPhone 3G came out to the tune of $199 this summer).

But if this G2 is not that much better (and don't get me started on the G3—we don't have those specs yet!), might it be worth the risk for T-Mobile and Google? Who's to say until we see it and people get to use it? Maybe it's a high-end device that will command a $400 or greater price point.

Until we know more, I'm going to go with Boy Genius' April timeline for the G2, and comment on the feature that stands out. No, it's not the lack of a keyboard to more closely mimic the iPhone.

It's the VGA camera for video calling, a brilliant application idea that makes total sense. Remember, Google's goal is to duplicate our desktop Internet experiences on devices running Android. Adding video calling is like the counterpart to the voice and video chat Google added to Gmail.

Such a strategy is killer. Perfect desktop Web apps, then port them or offer similar translations to Android smartphones. If the mobile Web apps are any bit as popular as their desktop counterparts, Google duplicates its formula for Web services success.

Then Google can start cleaning up on more mobile advertising opportunities. Build the mobile Web apps, and they will come.

In the meantime, what do you think is the likely timeframe for a G2 in 2009? January, April or next October, and why?

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Comments (28)

Don :

The G1 I have does do half the crap it should why would I go with a G2 after buying a G1. Why should I have to upgrade phones after 6 months to get the Google experience I was promised with this piece of crap. As soon as a Windows Mobile that has adequate memory is launched by T Mobile the G1 is going on Ebay. Either that or I am switching carriers soon, despite the ETF.

Sale :

Well interesting news are coming across the web as we are moving closer to January 26th, 2009 - it seems Google and T-Mobile used all new G1 owners as their little guinea pigs to test their product on us by making us pay and sign 2-year contracts. Now, that they are ready to move forward G2 rumors arise like the spring flowers

Kevin :

I don't get it. The G2 can come out whenever - tomorrow - it doesn't matter. Looking at the same information provided by yourself, it clearly is a different device. I know one is called the G1 and the other is called the G2 but why does that mean the G2 is the replacement? Not necessarily true is it? I personally, hate touchscreen keyboards and would stick with the G1 over the G2 for that reason. The iPhone customers were furious because the price was significantly cut, on the same product. Comparing apples to apples usually makes a lot more sense doesn't it?

"With that precedent, consumers who bought the G1 would be ticked off at the idea of a new T-Mobile Android gadget just three months after the first iteration."

Android is a software, not a phone, and it will eventually be on more than just the G1. Different phones for different users with different preferences, with the same software. Is that concept that difficult to comprehend?

"Android G2 conspiracy" Wow. Find something better to write about and stop wasting peoples' time.

Hadrian Logos :

I think both the G1 and Iphone are toys. Common, no cut and paste with one, and no Microsoft applications on both. Adults read documents, work with excel and Power Point. Also the 1k per month for talk and data plans is obscene. T-mobile and AT & T are thieves. Ok, all of the folks who just had to have one of these phones, what happens a year from now when they do eventually come out with grown up phones? Do you give your over priced toy to your kids? Oh they either have sidekicks or you are a grown up kid with out kids. In either case Google and Apple have made their money off of you, and a sucker is born every minute. AT & T and T mobile are even better they locked you in for a few years.

Paul Kraetsch :

I expect the earliest to see the G2 would be in the spring. I think it could be a very good strategy. If Google releases the G2 as a high end phone ($300-$400), people will buy it if it delivers. At the same time I think the G1 will remain selling to the consumers who like a physical keyboard and who want a less expensive phone.

Jordan :

April! The only thing coming is the cup cake update. And then soon after the on screen keyboard. Yum 

Stan :

Today, Dec. 21, 2008 I was informed by a friend of mine who happens to be a T-Mobile store manager that there will indeed be a G2 release around the end of January.

It is said to be a more curvacious style that is much better looking, better camera, no boxy design like the G1 and slightly smaller. It will also have a stand up screen when using the Qwerty keyboard instead of the sliding method used in the G1.

Obviously, I cannot verify this to be true, but have no reason to doubt my source.

I wonder if early G1 owners like myself will be able to get a reduced price on the G2?

AndroidUser :

I have been using my T-Mobile for over a month and find it superior to other smartphones. The operating system works surprisingly well and the touch screen works better than most.

ms :

Rants about rumors. That's useful. How about you pull off your blinders and remember that more choice is a good thing. Millions of people buy phones who don't follow all the up-to-the-minute news about technology. They get what they want and when their phone works, they don't look again at the market until they want something new. They don't follow up with T-mobile weekly asking "What's new that's better than my phone?" Sure some do, but if a phone works for you, or a computer, or a kitchen faucet, then it works and you like it. Until you're tired of it or you drop it in a swimming pool.

I don't dwell much on printers, or road bikes that come out that are better than mine because it's technology moving forward and it's also relative. If it's a different phone, it's a different phone. What if the G1 came out in Orange or Pink months later? Isn't the same regret possible?

There are no conclusions that the jury is still out on. Phones sell all the time, even the ones I can't fathom are flying off the shelves.

JT :

The best part about android is innovation. The lack of constraints on developers will surly make this platform superior to the iphone for the tech savvy consumer. I have an iPhone, which i love, but looking at some of the apps that have been developed for the android platform make me drool, though one thing lacking is the beauty and elegance in hardware design.

one app i am talking about
http://www.mobilizy.com/

am :

If they roll it out in January or April I will be so pissed. I just got mine delivered!

Richard :

I have no complaints with my G1. It is AOK!
However, if T-Mobile releases a "G2" before next fall, I will be extremely pissed-off!!! In fact, I will cancel my account and seek a refund.

unregistered reader :

Having been doing everything the iPhone does (plus cut, copy and paste, ftp and keyboard) since the days of the Handspring 90 with a bluetooth card and a Motorola phone with modem, albeit without the cross fades, it is tiresome to read news that compares everything with what Apple only came up with first for those who weren't paying attention.

T-Mobile has always understood that users who pay for gprs, edge and now 3g probably want to use it - unlike other service providers who live in fear of what iPhone users recently started calling 'tethering.' And they've always charged less than other service providers.

The fact that they may put out a new Android is hardly a big deal. And as for bagging user's of the previous model, anyone who's owned Apple gear knows about being continuously bagged.

So if the Android can be improved and voip with video added, why not? A close look at any list of cell phones will reveal that every manufacturer puts out dozens of phones most of which appear to be the same except for one feature or another.

Yes the day will probably arrive when the iPhone isn't the phone. Just as the day has already arrived when the netbook trumps Air except for those who like to watch their screen flex when they use the keyboard.

Buckley Krumperman :

Google Android is a propaganda target just like iPhone. Certain companies will work against Android to keep the lid on it by Maintaining a level of negativity on the net.

Bankie :

Whatever.

I hope they release a G2 at the January's end and a G3 by summer. If they're my heroes they'll come with a recession-themed G4 that folds out into a tent and comes with a resume printer.

P.S.: You've got to love Apple's response to irked Apple fans who waited in line over night (like morons) to buy a $700 mobile phone that would only work with one service (and in AT&T's case I use the word lightly)...

"'Early adopters' [know the risks]." Oh, well.

Mayank :

I don't think anybody will buy G-2 after disappointing G-1 which released just 3 months ago.

Banner :

If the G2 doesn't have a keyboard, then people will buy the iphone instead of it. The iPhone's greatest lack is not having a keyboard (and please don't tell me about the onscreen one, onscreen keyboards are worthless for any real typing). I'm looking at the G1 SOLELY because it has a keyboard, otherwise I might as well stick with my very plain motorola phone and use my laptop when I need to do anything.

Gary :

With the G1 only available in limited areas, maybe the G2 will be the mass market phone. I dont see them releasing another phone until the 3g network has been greatly extended.

s15274n :

I have the G1 and am in love with it... best phone I have owned. I ALSO could care less when the G2 comes out - more android phones = better apps for all of us. I love my phone and do not care if it has a 1 or 2 beside the G.... they are different animals and mine performs beyond what I need (and I want a keyboard).

JeffFromOhio :

Really, I have only a little sympathy for people who get 'angry' if T-Mobile and Google come out with another Android phone a few months after the first phone. Let me respond to the comments of a few posters. . .

Don wrote, "The G1 I have does[sic] do half the crap it should why would I go with a G2 after buying a G1."

So, why did you *buy* the phone if it doesn't do 1/2 the stuff it should? Seriously, you made the decision to buy the phone. Unless you bought it because of false advertising, I don't feel too bad for you. If there was false advertising involved, get a lawyer - he/she can do far more for you than complaining on the Web.

Adults need to take some responsibility for their own purchasing decisions. It's not rocket science to figure out that companies will, sooner or later, release new products. Whether it's 1 month or 2 years after the purchase is really irrelevant.

Sale wrote, "Well interesting news are coming across the web as we are moving closer to January 26th, 2009 - it seems Google and T-Mobile used all new G1 owners as their little guinea pigs to test their product on us by making us pay and sign 2-year contracts."

They didn't *make* you do anything. You chose to sign the contract and get the G1. If you did decent product research before you bought the phone, you would know exactly what features it had, and what software. If you liked the phone when you bought it, why would you like the phone any less, just because they release a new model?

Also, it's not rocket science that if a version 1 product is at least reasonably well received in the market, another version will likely be released at some point. Yes, January seems like a pretty fast turn-around for a product that was launched in October, but as others have said, the G2 as described doesn't sound so much like an 'upgrade', exactly, as just a different phone that happens to use the same operating system. Are you mad at T-mobile because they have multiple models of Blackberry's, Nokia's, and Samsung's, too? Different models offer people different combo's of features. Some people want a real keyboard, others don't, so different models satisfy different users.

If you're mad because it has a feature you wish you had in your G1, all I can say is you shouldn't have bought the G1 if it was missing features you wanted. I took a look at the G1, and decided I wouldn't buy one, because it was missing features which I thought a phone of that caliber and price should have (such as support for Unlimited Hotspot Calling/UMA). I also wanted to see what apps came out for the OS, to see if there were actually going to be apps I wanted to buy from the app store. So, I'm waiting to see if they release one which matches the feature set *I* want.

Now, all that said, if T-Mo does release something so soon, it would be good for business, I think, for T-Mo to offer some sort of trade-in program, to reward early adopters, by giving them at least the possibility to get the new phone either free or cheap, if they extend the contract another 6 months. They can turn around and re-sell the trade-ins to other customers for like $75 and a 2 year contract, and everybody's happy. T-mo would more than make up for the $100 'loss' to the customer who traded-in, because they get another 6 months out of the customer, plus they get the 2 year contract from the other customer who bought the used G1.

Since T-Mo hasn't even confirmed this rumor, you shouldn't get mad at them yet. What if they *did* release the new model in Jan. or Feb., but offered a trade-in program like I described. Would you still be angry? I don't know if they will or won't, but neither do you. Just chill, people.

n26793 :

I generally like my G1, however I
don't see T-Mobile putting much effort
into marketing it, at least in Silicon Valley.
Never featured in any ads, local stores
try to push other products, hard to find
on web site,etc. Seems to me that they
don't want to sell it.
BTW, G1 works as advertised, except for
buggy pop3 email app, and they need a
better algorithm for auto-scrolling
GPS map as you drive.

Droid :

This seems to be rapidly becoming a religous debate. People seem unable to break out of their paradigm. First of all, if you are a faithful lemming following either Windows or Apple you will be in the mind set that anything new is a serial replacement of what came before. If you are hooked on that concept then you probably won't like the Android series of phones. Think more like Linux, The basic kernal is pretty much the same, but have very different distributions like Ubuntu, Red Hat, Suse and so on. In the same way anyone who has been following the Android development would understand that having a different feature set on the G2 doesn't replace the Android operating system. And, hey, how about the prices on those open source programs you can load the Androids up with? Free is pretty good! Total cost of ownership seems to be pretty attractive when you add everything up.

Lemmings; line up to the left, keep moving, nothing to see here. Keep your eye on the shiny object. Enjoy your pre-packaged already obsolecent phone that locks you in to purchase after purchase after purchase. Androids are flexible, adaptable and have a long future ahead of them.

BasiliskSt :

The G1 would be a killer smart phone for me if it also featured T-Mobile hotspot calling (free voice over IP) in addition to accessing data functions over wireless.

That's the one "missing feature" that made me wait. I too prefer a hard keyboard to a touch screen keyboard.

Kokuryu Tenchi :

As long as they put in a full Bluetooth API and add a fully working Java MIDP configuaration with JSR-82 in it as well, then I will finally be happy with the Android phones and will think they are viable for the future.

thatcher :

The only reason I want a g2 so maybe it would have a real headphone jack. I wanted a phone with a mp3 player so I didn't have to carrie multiple electronics for phone and music. I don't care for bluetooth headphones they don't sound that great, I like being able to plug in my phone into the stereo at home and the one in the bathroom, the one at the bar. And I want to be able to charge it at the same time. Give me the g2 until then I'm stuck with the ever frozen have to pull the battery out 5 times a day blackberry.

CAT :

Every idiot who bought a G1 will feel robbed sooner or later anyway!;-)
It has only been a prototype that should never have left labs or limited developer's access as Google now sells a SIM-free version for roughly the same price (399$) mentioned for the iPhone 2.

Should they manage to ship in large enough numbers, the Kogan Android phone is the "G2" one might be waiting for! And even its more professional model pretty similar to let's say the Blackberry Bold comes SIM-free for only about 299$ (and it seems those are Australian, though it might be worth more than the US$ by now?;-)

vasya :

T-Mobile Hotspot is a complete rippoff! They designed their month to month unlimited service to make it easy for T-Mobile to fraudulently bill you on a continuous basis after you have terminated the account. Unfortunately, even when you inform them that they are to cancel and not resume beyond the month, it falls upon deaf ears and they continue to bill you. If you have it on a bank card, the crooks at T-Mobile think they have it made because the bank automatically pays the charges. In fact, T-Mobile will keep billing your bank card and this nonsense is very hard to stop. There ought to be a law prohibiting such unethical billing schemes. If someone wants to have repeated periodic billing, it should have to be affirmatively requested, and not be the default. It is far too convenient for T-Mobile to say, we didn't know you canceled and continue to rip you off. ie: steal your money; bill for services not rendered; bill you for services never utilized; bill for services never requested; bill for services never authorized. As it stands right now they have charged me for over $200.00 in services I never received. Since I overlooked the charges in my statement until this month when the automated larceny hit it has over drafted my account for over $100.00 plus another $70.00 in overdraft charges. This is 100% felony fraud!

che :

Why being pissed if a new Phone (with changes funcionality) arrives after three months?

I bought the N93 Phone from Nokia, which is announced as the highend video and cameraphone with zeiss optic. There is one Firmwarepudate for this Phone from Nokia at all and the Camerafunctions are crippeled because of Nokias Photohandy.

Nokia and other Vendors have less than 3 Months interval in product innovation.
Android is new and so its ok if innovation-cycles are that short.
If i had the chance to get a G1 in Germany i had bought it and i had no problem if an new phone arrives.

The G1 will benefit from new Functions in contrast to the Symbian Phones from Nokia.

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